BCG Global Hydrogen Demand Projections: 340 Mtpa by 2050

The global overview provided by BCG showed that the demand for low-carbon hydrogen is set to increase significantly by 2050, with applications such as power generation, aviation, ocean shipping, heat, and ammonia playing crucial roles. In a 2-degree scenario, the projections suggest a demand of around 340 Mtpa by 2050. The priority is to decarbonize sectors heavily reliant on traditional (gray) hydrogen, and projects are booming with over 1000 initiatives in the pipeline, primarily focusing on green hydrogen. The development of hydrogen hubs is a noteworthy trend aimed at achieving economies of scale. However, challenges like limited long-term commitments, higher-than-expected costs, and supply chain bottlenecks pose hurdles to industry growth.

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MENA's Dominance: 20.6 Mtpa Cumulative Green Hydrogen Capacity by 2030

MENA is taking the lead in green hydrogen projects, with a substantial cumulative production capacity of 20.6 Mtpa by 2030, represents approximately 28.6% of the total global cumulative green hydrogen capacity by that year, surpassing Europe at 18.4 Mtpa, Oceania at 12.1 Mtpa, North America at 6.8 Mtpa, and Asia at 6.4 Mtpa. This statistical dominance points to the region's potential to shape the global hydrogen market. International trading routes are poised to benefit regions like West Europe, Japan, and Korea, signaling promising opportunities for cross-border collaboration.

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Oman's Green Hydrogen Success: A Policy-Driven Triumph

Oman's green hydrogen strategy, exemplified by Hydrom, demonstrates how effective policies and regulations can boost a market. With an ambitious goal to produce over 1 Mtpa of green hydrogen by 2030, Oman is on track to reach 7.5-8.5 Mtpa by 2050, with exports planned for Europe, Asia, and local demand. Hydrom orchestrates the green hydrogen sector through tender management, land allocation, and infrastructure development, ensuring maximum project efficiency. They also allocate projects to developers, oversee execution, and foster an ecosystem for the hydrogen industry. Hydrom manages a data repository of vital wind and solar resources. In 2023, Hydrom will auction up to 3 Blocks in the Dhofar region, a crucial step in Oman's hydrogen journey. Oman's approach highlights the power of strategic policies, positioning the nation for green hydrogen success.

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ADNOC & Aramco: Forging a Strategic Path to Low-Carbon Hydrogen Leadership

ADNOC and Aramco's commitment to low-carbon hydrogen is a positive signal. Their pivot towards low-carbon hydrogen reflects an industry-wide recognition of the imperative to address climate change and contribute to a greener future. The oil and gas majors in the MENA region are actively investing in renewables, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage (CCS), indicating a shift towards sustainable energy solutions. However, their journey is not without challenges.  Continued support from demand sector incentives and the establishment of global harmonized standards are essential to propel this transformation. These incentives serve to encourage the widespread adoption of low-carbon hydrogen across various industries, accelerating the transition and ensuring its durability.

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Egypt & Morocco’s Green Hydrogen Ascent: Paving Way for 2027-2029

Egypt and Morocco are accelerating their green hydrogen projects, with a focus on developments expected between 2027 and 2029. Egypt's ambitious plans include 79 GW of electrolyzer capacity and 207 GW of renewable energy, with nine projects already underway and an estimated 15 GW of electrolyzer capacity and 26.9 GW of renewables by 2028. Morocco, leveraging its strategic location and abundant renewables, aims to capture 2-4% of global green hydrogen demand. With cost-effective production, Morocco could export green hydrogen to Europe, particularly Germany, at a competitive rate of approximately 3.72 euros per kilogram, compared to the projected domestic German production cost of 3.90 euros per kilogram. These projects herald a future where green hydrogen takes center stage in the region's sustainable energy landscape.

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